Interstate Conflict –

  Geographic Distributions of Armed Conflicts in 2000

 

Region

# of countries in region

# of conflicts in region

# of countries hosting conflicts

% of countries in region hosting conflicts

% of world conflicts

 

Africa

50

17

18

36

42.50

Asia

42

14

8

19

35

Europe

42

2

2

5

5

The Americas

44

2

2

4

5

Middle East

14

5

5

36

12.50

World Totals

192

40

35

18

100

      I.            Is the world more peaceful or more violent in the 21st Century?

                           A.            Large scale conflict is less likely but "small" wars are more likely

                            B.            Most conflicts occur in the Global South

                           C.            Nuclear weapons had been seen as obsolete (the pax atomica) but recent developments have shown that they are being considered once again.

                                                   1.            Remember the Three myths of US nuclear strategy discussed earlier in the semester

                                                                            a.            Nuclear bombs are just another weapon in the arsenal – no worse or better than other weapons.

                                                                           b.            It is possible to "win" a nuclear war. –

                                                                            c.            The solution to the Kilkenny dilemma can be found in technology that will either assure victory or prevent attack.

                                                   2.            Nuclear Policy Review leaked to the LA Times last month revealed that:

                                                                            a.            Nuclear weapons could be used in three types of situations: against targets able to withstand non-nuclear attack; in retaliation for attack with nuclear, biological or chemical weapons; or "in the event of surprising military developments."

                                                                           b.            The Pentagon should be prepared to use nuclear weapons during an Arab-Israel conflict, an Iraqi attack on Israel, or its neighbors, a North Korean attack on South Korea or a military confrontation between China and Taiwan

                                                                            c.            Countries such as Iran, Syria and Libya could be involved in immediate, potential or unexpected contingencies requiring "nuclear strike capabilities." The United States should be prepared to launch a nuclear strike to destroy stocks of weapons of mass destruction, such as biological and chemical arms.

                                                                           d.            The National Missile Defense Program seeks to develop a system to protect the US from preemptive or retaliatory attack.

 

   II.            The Causes of Armed Conflict

                           A.            Individual Level of Analysis – Are humans "hardwired" for war?

                                                   1.            Humans are aggressive and territorial by nature and war is inevitable

                                                   2.            War is the result of erroneous socialization

                            B.            State Level of Analysis

                                                   1.            Duration of Independence – the more stable a nation the less likely it is to go to war

                                                   2.            National Culture – religion, values, sense of identity

                                                   3.            Poverty – poorer but not poorest countries are more inclined towards war (relative deprivation – they must have the expectation that things will improve in order to see war  a viable way of seeking improvement.

                                                   4.            Militarization – do arms build ups make war more or less Likely?

                                                   5.            Economic system – little hard evidence that one economic theory has an advantage – however the more interdependent, the less likely war

                                                   6.            Type of government – liberal theory holds that democracies are less likely to go to war. It depends on how you define democracy and how you define war.

                                                   7.            Nationalism – Is it positive, negative, or does it exist on a continuum?

                           C.            Global Level of Analysis

                                                   1.            War as a quest for international stability

                                                   2.            War to avenge past wars

                                                   3.            Power Transitions – when the dominant great power is challenged by a rapidly growing emerging power.

                                                   4.            Long Cycle Theory – push for hegemony and resistance to it

                                                                            a.            War weariness hypothesis: " Peace brings riches; riches bring pride; pride brings anger; anger brings war; war brings poverty; poverty brings humanity; humanity brings peace; peace, as I have said brings riches, and so world affairs go around?" Luigi da Porto

 


III.   The India Pakistan Conflict
    A)    Jammu and Kashmir, ruled by a Hindu Maharaja  at the time of Independence
        1)    predominantly Hindu region of Jammu
        2)    majority Muslim valley of Kashmir
        3)    Buddhist area of Ladakh
    B)    Jammu  and Kashmir was one of more than 560 autonomous states owing allegiance to Britain.

           Britain divided India into two separate nations one majority Hindu and one majority Muslim. (500,000 casualties, millions homeless in enduing conflict)
        1)    Accession – process by which rulers chose to become part of India or Pakistan
        2)    By August 1947, the date of partition, the ruler of Jammu and Kashmir had not decided which dominion to join.
        3)    Pakistani position – Jammu  Kashmir should have become part of  Pakistan due to Muslim majority
        4)    – Maharaja signed accession to India in October 1947
    C)    The First Indo-Pakistani War 1947- 1948
        1)    Cause: Armed Pakistani tribesmen invaded Kashmir in October
        2)    Resolution – UN brokered ceasefire
            (a)    Both India and Pakistan agreed referendum to resolve issue. Cease fire line established but referendum not held
    D)    The Second  Indo-Pakistani war - 1965  
        1)    Cause:  border clash Rann of Kutch  and Pakistani  offensive across the ceasefire line in Jammu and Kashmir.
        2)    Resolution: UN-sponsored ceasefire. Both sides withdraw to pre-conflict borders
    E)    The Third Indo-Pakistani War  - 1971
        1)    Cause – Civil war between East and West Pakistan
        2)    Resolution – Pakistan surrendered
        3)    East Pakistan became Bangladesh –Dec. 6 1971. Pakistan's recognition of Bangladesh in 1974.

    F)    Kashmir insurgency  - 1989 to the present
        1)    Armed resistance to Indian rule began in the Kashmir valley.
        2)    Muslim political parties complained that the 1987 elections illegitimate
            (i)    Some groups demanded independence
            (ii)    others union with Pakistan.  
        3)    Pakistan calls insurgents freedom fighters – India calls them terrorists
        4)    Recent Chronology

·        May 1999 - India launched air strikes on Pakistani backed forces.  Pakistan responded by putting its forces on high alert  – 30,000 people flee their homes on the Pakistani side and 20,000 on the Indian side

·        October 1999 – General Pervez Musharraf assumes power in Pakistan in a military coup.

·        October 2001 – attack on the Kashmirii assembly

·         December 2001 – armed attack on the Indian Parliament in Delhi

·         January 2002 – Musharraf pledged that Pakistan would not allow terrorists to operate from Pakistani soil  May 2002 - more than 30 people, including women and children, died in an attack on an army camp near Jammu.    India responded by increasing the number of Indian soldiers deployed along the border with Pakistan.  Both sides  massed troops on borders, test fired ballistic missiles and deployed land mines in border areas.

·        October 2002 – Kashmir election boycotted by Muslim groups, more than 800 people were killed including a Kashmir state  government minister.

·        January 23 2003 India signs agreement w/ Russia for nuclear bombers and nuclear capable subs, tests long range ballistic missiles.  Both countries expel diplomats for spying.

·        April/May pressure from US and UK on both sides to resume negotiations

·        Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee calls for an end to the "violence and bloodshed" between the two countries  Pervez Musharraf orders a ceasefire along the border of Indian Kashmir and Pakistani Kashmir.

·        The leaders of India and Pakistan, Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pervez Musharraf, meet for the first time since their nations came to the brink of war two years ago.