The Iraq War:

The March of Democracy Or The March of Folly

I) Mohammed the Prophet (570-632)

A) Native of Mecca, a trading center

B) Successful businessman transformed through meditation and revelation

C) Begins public ministry in 620

1) monotheism, final judgement, equality before God, compassion for the poor

2) saw himself as a reformer of Christianity and Judaism

D) Persecuted by Quraish authorities who saw movement as threat to their power

E) Hijira - movement of the followers to Medina where Mohammed became a religious and political leader. Arabia conversion by 632

II) Islam as a “Confessional” Religion

A) Individual adherence (confession) to specific belief system

B) Sacred scriptures (Koran, Bible, Sutras)

C) Universal validity - applies to humanity

D) A life beyond death based on behavior

E) Koran - the direct word of God given to Mohammed.

1) Shariah - Islamic common law - evolving

2) Islam also holds Torah, Psalms and Gospels as sacred works

3) Jesus - the most important prophet but not divine

III) The Five Pillars of Islam

A) Shahadah - Profession of Faith

B) Salat - Ritual Prayer (dawn, noon,

(a) afternoon, sunset, evening)

C) Zakat - almsgiving (saduga – spontaneous almsgiving)

D) Sawm - fasting - Ramadan

E) Hajj - pilgrimage to Mecca. Stresses the equality of all muslims

IV) The Concept of Jihad

A) Means a holy struggle to live as God directs

1) Personal - overcoming evil tendencies

2) Communal - furthering the cause of God through conversion

3) Defensive – against the enemies of Islam

4) Political - tool to gather public support

V) Shite and Sunni Split

A) Sunni - Mohammed’s successors should be chosen by the faithful. Majority sect -90%

B) Shite - Successor should be descended from Mohammed’s family

1) followers of Ali, Mohammed’s son-in-law

2) Ali was betrayed and killed at the battle of Karbala in 680 – resulting in a split from the main Sunni branch

3) Imams - 11 successive leaders until 874

4) Madhi - the 12th Imam - messianic figure

5) Most influential in Iran and Iraq

VI) Spread of Islam 632- 1500

A) Caliphate (632-750) early successors to Mohammed - primarily Arabian

B) Abbasid (750 - 1258) Based in Baghdad

1) ruling dynasty during the Crusades

2) non Arabs in control of the Empire

3) Golden Age of Islam - centers of learning

VII) Ottoman Empire (1453-1917)

A) Turkic people – origins in Central Asia

B) Initially military forces for the Mongol Empire

C) Based in Istanbul (formerly Constantinople)

D) Presented power challenge to Europe

1) Battle of Kosovo – 1389 defeated Serbian (Eastern Orthodox Christian) forces

2) The siege of Vienna – 1541 maximum expansionist point for the empire

VIII) The Decline of the Ottoman Empire

A) Corruption of the ruling class

B) exploitation and amassing wealth

C) loss of effective military power

D) Environmental degradation -

E) The rise of European power

1) Efficient Dissemination of Technology

2) Subsequent increases in military and maritime efficiency

IX) British Duplicity in WWI

A) Goals:

1) Enlist Arab support against the Ottomans

2) Restrict Russian and French Influence

3) Protect British Power and Access to India

B) Obstacles

1) Conflict of goals

2) Poor understanding of Arab culture

C) McMahon - Hussein Correspondence 1915-16

1) Ottoman Empire had made alliance with Germany and Austria-Hungary

2) British were trying to encourage Arab revolt against Ottomans especially after the defeat at Gallipoli

3) Promised emir of Hijaz, Hussein ibn Ali, Syria, Iraq, Jordan and Ibn Saud the rest of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait

4) Hussein wished to replace the Ottomans as Caliph – secular and religious head of Islam

D) Sykes-Picot Agreement

1) Plan to divide Ottoman Empire between the French and British

2) Italy and Russia added later to parts of Turkey

X) The Sons of Hussein and New States

A) Fiesal – friend of T.E. Lawrence

1) According to the Lawrence of Arabia myth –effective fighter and scourge of the Ottomans

2) Reality – more manageable than his father and chosen by British as a cooperative Arab leader

3) Declared himself King of Syria but was driven out by the French who assumed control of their part of the Middle East.

4) Later installed as King of newly created Iraq

B) Abdullah – Made Emir of Transjordan

1) Put in place to counter French moves to gain more territory

2) Move was supposed to be temporary but resulted in the creation of the state of Jordan. Current King Abdullah is his great grandson.

XI) Self Determination

A) Turkey – Kemal Mustafa (Attaturk) pushed European Powers out of Anatolia and established the Republic of Turkey in 1922

B) Syria – under French Mandate until after WWII

C) Jordan – under British Mandate until 1946

D) Palestine – under British mandate until 1948

E) Iraq- Under British Mandate until 1932

F) Saudi Arabia – Ibn Saud (Abdul Aziz) defeated Emir Hussein in 1925. Saudi Arabia founded 1932

XII) Iraq after WWI

A) British had suffered heavy casualties in Iraq during the war

B) British Mesopotamian Campaign 1914 -1918, some

C) 80,000 British casualties 30,000 fatalities, half due to disease, mainly cholera.

D) Loss of its entire 6th Division following a Turkish Siege at Kut.

E) After surrender, the Turks forced the British (and many Indian Army) prisoners to march back to Baghdad.

F) Most of the 10,000 prisoners did not survive the ordeal in 120-degree heat with little food and water.

XIII) The Revolt of 1920

A) Demand for complete Iraqi Independence from Britain

B) Precursors

1) Wilsonian principle of self determination

2) Iranian Constitutional Revolution of 1905-1911

3) Ottoman Constitution of 1908

4) Unified Sunni and Shiite calling for constitutional monarchy and British withdrawal

C) British suppressed the revolt but they were unable to suppress calls for independence.

D) Finally gave up on trying to maintain the mandate and granted full independence in 1932

E) 1920 Revolt is a strong symbol of Iraqi self determination and resistance against occupation

XIV)The Hashemite Monarchy in Iraq

A) Feisal I – 1922-1933

1) Constitutional monarch

2) Continuing ethnic conflict

B) Ghazi – 1933-1939

1) First coup d’etat in 1936

2) Killed in a car accident in 1939

3) Military held the power to sustain or remove government

C) Feisal II – (1939-1959) King at age 4 – uncle ruled as regent

XV) Iraq in WWII- Return of the British

A) Iraq at first tried to remain neutral

B) Pan-Arab sentiment tilted toward Germany

1) The enemy of my enemy (British) is my friend

2) Called for Iraq to unify Arabs and drive British out of Transjordan and Palestine

C) Government was controlled by pro Axis faction

D) Britain invaded Iraq in 1941 and fought with Iraqi forces – defeated them w/in 30 days

1) Leaders of anti British group were executed

2) Britain was able to use Iraq as a base throughout the war

XVI)Iran after WWII

A) 1951 move by Prime Minister Mossadeq to nationalize the Oil company

B) British convinced CIA that Mossadeq was a Communist

C) CIA sponsored coup eliminated the Constitutional monarchy and restored the Shah, Reza Pahlavi, to the throne

D) Pahlavi ruleed as an authoritarian with US support.

XVII) Post World War II Neo Colonialism

A) The middle East became another arena for US/Soviet Conflict

1) US Sphere - Israel, Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran (until 1979)

2) Soviet Sphere - Syria, Libya, Yemen,

3) Side switching – Iraq (1960’s) and Egypt (1970’s)

4) Anti Imperialist movements viewed as pro Communist - not always accurate

XVIII) Iraq during the Cold War

A) Following WWII Iraq signed a treaty with Britain

B) Popular uprising demanded abrogation of the treaty

C) Government was forced to resign

D) Additional uprising occurred in 1952

E) Iraq established ties with west for development of infrastructure and oil industry

XIX) Interests and Alliances

A) Based on Political Realism -“Nations don’t have friends; nations have interests.” Lord Acton

B) Primary Interests

1) Containing the spread of Communism

2) Supporting anti-communist authoritarian states

3) Ensuring access to Petroleum supplies (especially after OPEC oil embargo of 73-74)

C) Primary Alliances

1) Israel – historical and political reasons but primarily anti-communist

2) Saudi Arabia - both anti communist and after 1979 counterforce to Iranian Shiite Revolutionary movement

XX) The Backlash Against the West

A) USSR presented itself as alternative to the West

B) Pan Arab movement –

1) Secular in nature – catch up to the West

2) concept of unifying all Arab people in one nation or as a federation of states.

3) Failed because multiple national identities and no unifying leader

4) Muslim Brotherhood (Egypt – 1950’s)

(a) rejection of western ideals

(b) Precursor to Islamic fundamentalism

(c) Persecuted and suppressed by secular rulers

XXI) The 1958 IraqRevolution and after

A) Abd al-Karim Qasim– military officer

B) Seized Baghdad, executed the King

C) Prime Minister killed in the conflict

D) Military Control of the Country

1) 1959- Attempted coup – one young officer involved, Saddam Hussein, flees to Egypt

2) Met with US intelligence officers

3) Sent back to Iraq to report on the Soviet leaning Qasim government

XXII) 1963 -The Emergence of the Baa’th Party

A) Young military officers advocating Arab unity, nationalism and socialism

B) The US was among the first governments to recognize the regime

C) CIA provided the new government with a list of 800 Iraqi communists who were arrested and executed

1) Unstable and divided – the regime lasted only 9 months

2) 1964-1968 – Two more CIA backed Ba’thist coups - unsuccessful

D) The 1968 Coup

1) Led by Ahmad Hassan al-Bakr and Saddam Hussein

2) Bakr was not interested in the day to day operation of government so he delegated it to his deputy

3) Hussein came to effectively control the state although Bakr was the nominal head until 1979

4) 1972 – Iraq signed a treaty with the USSR and allowed the reorganization of the Communist Party

5) Communists refused to fall in line with the regime and were once again targeted for suppression

6) Government nationalized the Petroleum Industry

XXIII) Iraq under Saddam Hussein

A) 1979- Bakr resigned due to ill health and Saddam Hussein assumed power

1) Arrested a leading Baa’th official and tortured him into confession treason

2) Called together all leaders and had the traitor name those he suspected of less than total loyalty – each was executed

3) A video tape was made and distributed to all Ba’th officials – there were no more coups

B) Authoritarian regime

C) No tolerance of dissent

D) No civil liberties protection

E) No check on executive power

F) Not totalitarian – trying to control all aspects of society

XXIV) Islamic Revolutionary Movement 1979 - Iran

A) Shah seen as corrupt minion of the West

B) Seizure of US Embassy took both the US and Ayatollah Khomeini by surprise

C) Establishment of Islamic Republic and commitment to spread of the movement throughout the Islamic world

XXV) The Iran Iraq War

A) The war began as a disagreement between the two countries over control of Shat al Arab, waterway to the Gulf

B) Hussein was worried that Iranian revolution would spread to the Shiite majority in Iraq

C) He thought Iran was weak in the aftermath of Revolution and it would be an ideal time for an invasion

D) Iran began shelling of Iraq and Iraq invaded Iran

E) Iraq was pushed out or Iran by 1982

F) 1982-1987 – Iranian human waves of soldiers against superior Iraqi weaponry

G) 1984- 1987 – stalemate, bombing of cities and tankers within the gulf

H) A negotiated settlement was reached in 1988. No change in territory – huge cost in money and lives

XXVI) US Involvement in the Iran Iraq War

A) US sold arms to both sides (Iraq openly and Iran covertly)

B) US Navy in the Gulf to protect shipping

C) Kuwaiti Ships sailed under US flags

D) US Attacks on Iraqi ships, Iranian airliner

E) US wanted Iran and Iraq to counterbalance each other and negotiate a settlement

XXVII) Iraqi Use of Chemical Weapons

A) Part of a larger campaign of ethnic cleansing of Kurdish population

1) Kurds made up 4 million out of population of 18 million

2) Kurds had waged a low level resistance to Iraq and some groups sided with Iran

3) Saddam Hussein appointed his cousin Ali Hassan al-Majid (Chemical Ali) to lead the campaign against the Kurds – especially rural Kurds

4) Forced removal of Kurdish populations and replacement with Arabs from the south

5) Destruction of Kurdish Villages

6) Murder of over 100,000 Kurdish civilians

B) Used in combat against Iranian/Kurdish forces – many civilians also killed

C) Worst attack was at Halabja in March 1988 – 5000 casualties

D) US response to Chemical Weapons use

E) 1984 – Reagan Administration sought to renew ties to Iraq

1) Donald Rumsfeld was sent to Iraq to stress that the US saw Iraq as a means of containing Iran and objections about chemical weapons was pro forma and we continued to support Iraq

2) Promised that the US would work to restrict arms sales to Iran (But by 1986 US was providing arms to Iran)

3) Sought to negotiate a pipeline from Iraq to the Gulf of Aqaba

4) Argued against sanctions (Futility, perversity, jeopardy)

(a) There is no proof of chemical weapons use

(b) Both sides have used them – it could have been the Iranians at Halabja

(c) Use is unfortunate but Iraq had a right to defend itself against a terrorist attack by Kurds

(d) State Department refused to acknowledge or condemn attacks

F) Prevention of Genocide Act of 1988

1) Would have placed sanctions on Iraq.

2) Blocked by Reagan Administration and by agricultural interests (rice, wheat)

3) 1989 – the US doubled Iraq farm credits to $1 billion

4) Bush signed NSD-26 concluding “Normal relations between the US and Iraq would serve our longer-term interests and promote stability in both the Gulf and the Middle East”

5) April 1990 – Sens. Dole and Simpson visit with Hussein in Baghdad and state that Hussein is someone “with whom the US can work.”

G) August 1990 – Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait

1) Iraqi Displeasure with Kuwait

2) Borders drawn by Britain - Al Sabah family has historical ties to territory, but Iraq claimed it was should be theirs as it had been part of the Ottoman province of Basra

3) Access to the Persian Gulf damaged during the war and Kuwait not allowing Iraqi Shipping

4) Kuwait loaned money to Iraq during the war, Iraq could not repay and Kuwait was demanding repayment.

5) Iraq accused Kuwait of over draining Rumeileh oil field

6) Iraq pushing OPEC to increase oil price - blacked by Kuwait

H) US ambassador April Glaspie met with Hussein assured him that his dispute with Kuwait was not a primary US concern

I) Hussein took it as green light and invaded Kuwait in August 1990 – yet another miscalculation

XXVIII) Desert Shield and Storm

A) Al Sabah family fled, Iraqi troops massed on the border to Saudi Arabia.

B) US led coalition moved into Saudi Arabia in August to force withdrawal

C) Bombing campaign began January 1991

D) Ground Forces followed and over a period of 4 days drove Iraqis out of Kuwait.

E) Casualties

1) 146 US

2) 10,000 Kuwaiti military and civilian

3) 500,000 Iraqi military

4) 110,000 Iraqi Civilian

F) Hussein response to Attack

1) Two serious miscalculations

(a) US would not respond to Kuwait invasion

(b) War could be avoided thru negotiation

2) Once an attack was inevitable, Hussein pulled back Republican Guard to Baghdad and left poorly trained and supplied conscripts behind.

3) Iraqi weapons were totally inadequate

4) Massive surrender of front line troops

5) Allegations of excessive or inappropriate force on the part of the Coalition (Burying soldiers in trenches and the Basra Highway incident)

XXIX) End of the War?

A) US did not carry on campaign because

1) lack of support among allies for larger war

2) potential loss of American lives

3) Prevention of power vacuum in Iraq

B) Surrender involved Iraqi pledge to end Chemical and biological weapons programs

C) Extensive damage to Iraq’s infrastructure (water, sewage, electricity, roads, oil industry)

XXX) Kurdish and Shiite uprising

A) Feb. 15 Bush called on Iraqi’s to overthrow Saddam

B) Feb. 27 – ceasefire signed

C) Shiites rebelled March 2 in the South

1) Seized Basra, Najaf, Nasiriaya and started to execute Ba’thists

D) Kurds rebelled March 6 in the North

1) In one month they had liberated “Kurdistan”

2) Also began to execute Ba’thists and drive out Arabs

E) US did not provide support to rebellion and it rapidly collapsed when both were attacked by Saddam’s forces

F) Kurdish humanitarian disaster forced US to intervene in the north

XXXI) UN Sanctions and Weapons Inspections

A) To force Iraq to end weapons development

B) To force Hussein from power

C) Between 1991 and 1996, according to the UN 500,000 Iraqi children died due to lack of medical care and a third of Iraqi children went undernourished.

1) Sanctions had been steadily losing support

2) Weapons inspections conducted with unclear results

3) Dismantled chemical, biological and nuclear programs

4) Iraqis continued to hedge on full disclosure

5) In December 1998 inspectors were withdrawn when the Clinton administration conducted four days of bombing

6) Bombing of Installations in the no fly zones continued targeting Iraq’s defensive capabilities

XXXII) The Clean Break - 1996

A) Richard Perle – served in Reagan and Bush I

B) campaign brief for Netenyahu in Israeli election

C) Rejection of the Oslo Peace Process and a focus on the use of military might to force the Arab world to accept Greater Israel

D) Israel should cooperate with Jordan and Turkey to Isolate Syria

E) Focus “on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq — an important Israeli strategic objective in its own right — as a means of foiling Syria’s regional ambitions.

F) Suggested returning Hashemite to power in Iraq- “Jordan has challenged Syria's regional ambitions recently by suggesting the restoration of the Hashemites in Iraq.”

G) Allocated funds for exile groups

XXXIII) Why a War on Iraq?

A) The Rhetoric

1) Eliminate Weapons of Mass Destruction

2) A Front on the War on Terror

3) Avenge September 11

4) Rid the Country of an Evil Dictator

B) The Reality

1) Further the strategy of US dominance in the world

2) Demonstrate military might of the US as a deterrent to any nation that might be considering a challenge to the US

3) Establish a large permanent US presence in the Middle East

4) Address the challenge posed by a leader who got away after opposing the US

5) Iraq was the best choice for a demonstration case

(a) No sympathy for Hussein

(b) ar, sanctions, inspections)

(c) Already seen as the enemy by the US public

XXXIV) Goals of the US War in Iraq

A) Kill or arrest Saddam Hussein

B) Put in place an compliant Iraqi Government

C) Send a message to other Arab and Non-Arab regimes to concede to US wishes or face the consequences

1) Force Palestinians to concede to, either a disconnected non autonomous Palestinian state, or “population transfer” to Jordan

2) Guarantee stable flow of oil from the Persian Gulf

D) Afghanistan/Iraq/al Qaeda

1) Iraq was immediately assumed to be involved (although there were no Iraqis among the hijackers

2) Saddam Hussein helped this view by being the only leader to publicly support the attacks

3) Neoconservatives saw the opportunity to include Iraq within the war on terror

4) At Bush’s direction, Rumsfeld began planning an Iraq campaign at the same time as the Afghan campaign but military said that they lacked the forces to wage simultaneous war

5) The Administration began building the case for an Iraq Attack

(a) Public opinion demonstrated success at linkage

(b) 57% thought Iraq directly or indirectly involved in Iraq

(c) 30% believed there were continuing contacts with al Qaeda

XXXV) The Office of Special Plans

A) Set up after 911 to gather intelligence regarding Saddam Hussein and WMD

B) Part of the Defense Department

C) Reflected neocon dissatisfaction with the CIA

D) Relied on exile’s information especially the INC

1) Ahmad Chalabi – left Iraq in 1958 but established close contacts with Perle and Wolfowitz in the 1990s. CIA and State department had little faith in the information he provided

2) Khidhir Hamza, an Iraqi nuclear scientist who defected in 1994 – Other Iraqi defectors claimed he was unreliable and more interested in fame than the truth

E) The INC would “translate” in interviews with defectors and tell the OSP what they wanted to hear

1) Goal was to find information on Iraq’s hostile intentions or links to terrorists

2) Cherry picking intelligence: selecting any evidence that confirms pre-existing beliefs and ignoring anything that does not fit within it.

XXXVI) The Downing Street Memo actually meeting minutes transcribed during the British Prime Minister's meeting on July 23, 2002.

C reported on his recent talks in Washington. There was a perceptible shift in attitude. Military action was now seen as inevitable. Bush wanted to remove Saddam, through military action, justified by the conjunction of terrorism and WMD. But the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy. The NSC had no patience with the UN route, and no enthusiasm for publishing material on the Iraqi regime's record. There was little discussion in Washington of the aftermath after military action.

It seemed clear that Bush had made up his mind to take military action, even if the timing was not yet decided. But the case was thin. Saddam was not threatening his neighbours, and his WMD capability was less than that of Libya, North Korea or Iran. We should work up a plan for an ultimatum to Saddam to allow back in the UN weapons inspectors. This would also help with the legal justification for the use of force.

XXXVII) Iraq Resolution

A) Passed by the Congress, October 10-11, 2002.

1) House -296-133 Senate – 77-23

2) “The Congress of the United States supports the efforts by the President to-- (1) strictly enforce through the United Nations Security Council all relevant Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq and encourages him in those efforts; and (2) obtain prompt and decisive action by the Security Council to ensure that Iraq abandons its strategy of delay, evasion and noncompliance and promptly and strictly complies with all relevant Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq.”

B) “Authorization.--The President is authorized to use the Armed Forces of the United States as he determines to be necessary and appropriate in order to-- (1) defend the national security of the United States against the continuing threat posed by Iraq; and (2) enforce all relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq.”

XXXVIII) European Proposal to avert War

A) February 24: France and Germany and Russia propose

1) Triple the number of inspectors

2) Satellite surveillance

3) More time for inspections

B) US response

1) Old Europe is seeking to appease Hussein

2) Trying to undermine US sponsored resolution to agree to war

XXXIX) The US and UK go it alone

A) US and UK step up air strikes to “soften up” Iraqi defenses

B) March 1: Turkish Parliament defeats proposal to allow US forces to attack Iraq through Turkey

C) March 16: Bush and Blair give the UN 24 hours to support the US resolution. When it is not forthcoming they withdraw it

D) March 18: Bush gives Hussein 48 hour ultimatum to resign or face invasion.

E) March 20: Bombing and invasion of Baghdad begins

F) April 9: Fall of Baghdad

XL) The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam Barbara Tuchman (1984)

A) “A phenomenon noticeable throughout history regardless of place or period, is the pursuit of policies contrary to their own interests.”

B) To qualify as political folly:

1) Policy perceived as counterproductive at the time

2) A feasible alternative policy has been presented

3) A product of a group not an individual

C) Tuchman’s examples: Troy, the Church’s response to the Protestant Reformation, The American Revolution and the Vietnam War

XLI) Second Iraq War

A) Counterproductive

1) Increased risk of terrorist attacks

2) Lead nations (Iran, N. Korea)to develop stronger military arsenals

3) Other threats (terrorism) neglected

4) Has pointed out the vulnerabilities of US power (see #1)

5) Has led to a solidifying of anti US sentiment

6) Has undermined the post war international system

7) Has increased the deficit and starved domestic spending

B) Feasible alternative – Coercive inspections

1) Ironically proposed by Jessica Tuchman Matthews of the Carnegie Endowment for peace

2) Would have coupled inspectors with military force – similar to the European plan

C) Product of neoconservative policy not just GW Bush

XLII) The Plan

A) Chalabi and leading INC supporters would be flown into Iraq and provided with weapons as the “Free Iraqi Forces”

B) Leading Ba’thists would be arrested and replaced with INC with Chalabi as interim head of government

C) Chalabi promised that he would:

1) Welcome a permanent US presence in the country

2) Recognize Israel and sign a peace treaty

3) Give US firms exclusive access to redevelopment

4) Allow for construction of the Aqaba pipeline to Israel

D) Syria and Iran would be forced to do the same or face the same sort of attack as seen in Iraq.

E) The Palestinians would realize the futility of their resistance (once aid was cut off by now compliant Arab states) and would concede to Israeli territorial demands.

XLIII) Colonial Projection

A) Tendency for colonial powers to project on to the colony what they would like (But cannot achieve) in the mother country

1) US and Iraq: US would impose free market, flat tax, low regulation

2) US companies would get contracts for reconstruction

3) Laws would prevent nationalization of industries and full foreign ownership of Iraqi companies

4) Civil liberties would be provided but only in a limited fashion that would not threaten the new regime

XLIV) The CPC replaces the OHRA

A) April 21 – Jay Garner arrived in Baghdad planned to hold a national congress in July 2003 to formulate a government.

B) May 7 – Garner and his staff informed that they were dismissed. Coalition provisional Authority under Paul Bremer replaces Garner.

C) June – Bremer states the US will remain in Iraq for several years to make a gradual transition to full independence and that he will function as the de facto head of state until the US decides that Iraq is ready for sovereignty. Opposed by most Iraqis, most prominently by Ayatollah Sistani the leading Shiite Cleric

D) July 21 – Bremer forced to appoint Iraqi Governing Council but refuses

E) November 15, After emergency consultations in Washington, Bremer announced that the US will turn over power to the Iraqis by July 1and that local elections will be held in spring of 2004. The CPA will choose who can participate.

F) January 2004: Sistani called for democratic elections rather than the process decided by the US – no elections are held

XLV) Why didn’t it Work

A) Cognitive dissonance – unable to see any contradictory evidence that it would not work

B) Over reliance on Chalabi and the INC

C) Shutting out the State Department

D) Arabists were seen as biased against attack

1) Future of Iraq Project (extensive blueprint prepared by DOS and exiles) was ignored

E) Too little planning too late

1) The Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance (ORHA) established Jan. 20, 2003

2) Did not have logistical support it needed to integrate with the military

F) Troops: too few , too constricted in duties

1) General Shinseki, warned Congress that postwar Iraq would require ''several hundred thousand'' U.S. troops.

2) Wolfowitz told Congress that Shinseki's number was ''wildly off the mark,'' adding, ''It's hard to conceive that it would take more forces to provide stability in post-Saddam Iraq than it would take to conduct the war itself and secure the surrender of Saddam's security force and his army.''

3) Shinseki retired soon afterward.

4) Rumsfeld wanted Iraq to be an example of how the use could use a limited force to “pre-empt” in the future

5) Army had trained extensively for the attack but not at all for the aftermath (looting, no water or power, crime)

G) Firing the military and Ba’thists

1) 400,000 former soldiers without work or income

2) Losing over 50,000 midlevel bureaucrats

H) Ignoring the Shiites

1) The Bush administration assumed that because Chalabi’s mother was Shiite, he would be embraced. Chalabi was secular and had no Shiite support

2) They assumed that the Shiites would welcome the US and would not become politically involved

3) Shiite religious leaders moved into the power vacuum to try to restore order

I) Failure to understand Iraqi Society

1) False belief that there was no Iraq other than Saddam or the exiles – post Saddam Iraq as a blank slate

2) Resistance was present but suppressed

(a) Salafi – Sunni fundamentalism in al-Anbar Province

(b) SCIRI – Shiite - backed by Iran

(c) Sadrists – Shiite militant millenialist movement anti Baa’th, anti Israeli, anti US

3) Once Saddam was removed they began to operate openly

4) Use of tactics that alienated the civilian population (raids, Christian missionaries, lack of respect for elders)

XLVI) Failure to understand the nature of “A People’s War”

A) “the desire of people to rule themselves rather than be governed by foreign countries, that are possessed of utterly alien values and their own self-serving priorities.”

B) Dismissal of the insurgency as “dead-enders, Baa’th remnants, terrorists, thugs

1) US sees themselves as liberators, Iraqis see them as occupiers

2) Perception is more important that reality in seeking to make the occupation acceptable to the occupied.

3) The average Iraqi has more at stake than the average American

C) Use of tactics that alienated the civilian population

1) Raids to arrest suspected insurgents

2) Prisoner Abuse

3) Civilians caught in the crossfire

4) Playing into the hands of those who wish to portray the war as a new crusade

(a) Christian missionaries,

(b) lack of respect for elders and women

XLVII) The Iraqi Plan for resistance

A) Ahead of the invasion

1) Preparing arms caches and currency

2) Decentralization of command

B) During the Invasion

1) US was engaged primarily by irregular fighters (Feyadeen)

2) Republican Guard melted away as US approached Baghdad

3) Many simply took off their uniforms and returned home

C) After the Invasion

1) Decentralized insurgency

2) Probably responsible for much of the looting and sabotage

3) As in Afghanistan, the plan is to wear down the US and make reconstruction impossible

XLVIII) The US Response – Jenin Rules

A) US has copied the tactics used by the IDF in the occupied territories

1) House to house searches

2) Destruction of buildings used by insurgents

3) Cordoning off towns and imposing curfews

4) Promising to arrest or kill leaders

5) Indiscriminate fire when fired upon

B) Each technique has served to increase resistance and unify opinion against the US

C) Again perception is as important as reality as in the case of Jenin

XLIX) The Iraqi Governing Council

A) appointed by Bremer in July 2003.

B) It could appoint and dismiss ministers and control the national budget. It could also oversee the creation of a congress to draft a new Iraqi constitution.

C) CPA retained real power

1) controled "operational security" and

2) could veto decisions made by the council.

D) Most of those holding council seats were members of Saddam Hussein's opposition in exile.

E) The council was selected to represent Iraq's ethnic make-up

L) June 30, 2004 Turnover of Sovereignty

A) General perception both in and out of Iraq was that it was cosmetic to assist Bush’s political goals (i.e. election)

B) Change from “a puppet government that doesn’t pretend to control anything to a puppet government that does try to pretend it controls something.”

C) US remained in effective control

1) Military forces remain (14 “enduring” military bases)

2) Each ministry would have a US “advisor”

3) Bremer was be replaced with a US ambassador John Negroponte in the world’s largest US embassy, with the ability to manage all reconstruction projects

LI) Current Obstacles to a Success

A) Widespread perception of the US/UK as “occupiers”

B) Continuing security problems

C) Carjacking, kidnap, rape, robbery

D) Fighting an insurgency among a hostile population

E) Lack of consistent power, fuel and water

F) Lack of legitimacy for the Iraqi Government

G) Lack of money – unable to meet obligations

H) Lack of adequate troops to provide above

I) Ethnic divisions that may well cause a breakup of the country